The unpleasant upside surprise in the June retail inflation reading, which printed in at 5.40% against consensus expectations of 5.10%, has some sections of the market worried about the path of inflation going ahead. These concerns have been exacerbated by the loss of traction in monsoon rainfall in July, especially in southern and central India where most of the country’s pulses production—the commodity group that led the spike in CPI inflation in June—is concentrated. Cumulative monsoon rainfall was 5% below normal between June 1st - July 26th after being 4% above average in June. The deficit in the pulses producing region of central and south India is now 11% below average. This has prompted us to take a long, hard look at the current inflation dynamics at play in India.
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